Reduced Rainfall Expected Until September As El Niño Develops in the Indian Ocean

COLOMBO (News 1st) - According to Winthrop Professor of coastal oceanography Charitha Pattiaratchi of the University of Western Australia, Sri Lanka could experience rainfall exceeding 100 millimetres during October and November this year.

The forecast is based on the strengthening El Niño phenomenon and evolving conditions in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Professor Pattiaratchi said the developing strong El Niño phenomenon, coupled with a weak positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, is expected to influence Sri Lanka’s weather patterns in the coming months.

He noted that rainfall is likely to decrease from this month through 
September during the Southwest Monsoon season.

However, rainfall during October and November is expected to be above normal, with potentially exceeding 100 millimetres of rainfall.

Professor Pattiaratchi further forecast that below-average rainfall could return from January to April next year.

Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has revised it's climate outlook based on data collected on the 14th of June. 

According to the latest update, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean had risen to 0.92°C above average by last Sunday.

The Bureau has also revised its forecast, indicating that the El Niño event may become stronger than previously projected.

Under the updated outlook, temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean could rise by as much as 3.3°C above average by November.

The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology also show that while Indian Ocean temperatures remain within the neutral range, they have been increasing over the past two weeks.

As of the 14th of June, the Indian Ocean Dipole index stood at negative 0.13°C.